James Cameron has built a career on making really questionable business decisions look like absolute genius, but as Avatar: Fire & Ash winds its way down to the end of its theatrical run with a global haul of $1.44 billion, the industry is just shrugging. I mean, in any other universe, $1.4 billion is a slam dunk .. but in the world of Pandora, where the production and marketing bill for this sequel topped $500 million, people are muttering to themselves about "just barely breaking even".
The real cause for concern, though, is the trajectory. We're talking about an $890 million drop from The Way of Water's $2.33 billion - that's a huge cliff-dive, and for a franchise that's all about being "invincible", a nearly billion-dollar drop between installments can make even the most confident studio big-wig lose some sleep.
The D'Amaro Era and the 500 Million Dollar Conundrum
This slump is happening at a particularly awkward time for Disney. The House of Mouse is in the middle of a major leadership handoff, with Josh D'Amaro about to officially take over from Bob Iger as CEO in March. D'Amaro - a 28-year vet who basically ran Disney's money-making cash-cow (the Parks and Experiences division) - knows a thing or two about Pandora as a physical destination, but as the man now holding the purse-strings for the whole company, he's going to have to justify whether investing another $1 billion into Avatar 4 and 5 makes sense when the crowd is dwindling.
Cameron's been pretty open about this in the past. He's said that the studio - now under no real obligation to finish the series - will be the ones to decide whether we ever see the 2029 and 2031 releases. If D'Amaro is staring down domestic box office figures that plummeted from $688 million to just $392 million, 'putting the brakes on the budget' isn't just an option - it's a boardroom imperative.
What happened to the fire in the belly?
Industry insiders are already dissecting the underperformance of "Fire and Ash". A few theories are emerging as the front runners:
- The Proximity Problem: With a 13-year wait for the first sequel, and a 3-year gap for this one, it's possible the franchise has lost its "once-in-a-decade" event status - it's lost some of that magic
- The 197-Minute Fatigue: People weren't quite so keen to sit through a three hour plus movie for a story that a lot of critics felt was just rehashing old, familiar beats without the kind of 'technological leap' that made the first two films so mind-blowing
- The Missing "Must-See" Factor: While the 3D was still pretty stunning, it just didn't feel like the revolution of cinema that we've come to expect from Cameron when watching one of his movies.
The Path to 2029 & Beyond
If Avatar 4 actually makes it past the chopping block its out on December 21, 2029. By then, Jim Cameron will be 75 - if he lasts that long in the director's chair. He's already talking about cutting back on the costs for the next two chapters, but you don't exactly get a reputation like his by skimping on quality.
The next instalment - Cameron has been saying it's going to be a "corker" - is supposed to feature a massive time leap and possibly take the action to Earth. We know Michelle Yeoh is joining the cast (as Dr. Karina Mogue, allegedly) and Giovanni Ribisi is back as Parker Selfridge with a bigger role this time around. But with a trimmed down budget, can these films really keep up their "techno street cred"? That's the real question mark - and one worth half a billion dollars.
Beyond Pandora
Let's not lose sight of things despite all the Armageddon style talk - Avatar Fire and Ash is still coming in at 18th on the all time box office gross. It'll likely make its money back as soon as it drops on Disney Plus and VOD later this year. And basically, you can't write Jim Cameron off yet - he's still got a whole load of high concept stuff in the pipeline - like the atomic bomb drama Ghosts of Hiroshima, the new Terminator reboot, and all those Alita sequels that have been in the works for ages.
The King of the Blockbuster is still on the throne but for the first time in two decades, the foundations are showing a few cracks.